january 5, 2006

Sharon's Stunning News

The news stunned Israelis and sent shock waves throughout the Middle East.  Israel’s old military and political war horse, Ariel Sharon suffered a debilitating stroke.  The massive cerebral hemorrhage left the presumptive candidate for Prime Minister near death and on life support. Even for Israelis, used to news at a breathtaking clip, it was hard to process.   

One anchor in the midst of this uncertainty was the call for prayer.  Israel’s chief rabbis called for prayer.  People gathered at the Western Wall to pray.  One Jewish commentator told me that Jews and Christians could both draw on the power of the Psalms to beseech the Almighty and Paul’s exhortation in 1Timothy 2:1-4 seemed all the more appropriate at a time like this: "I urge, then, first of all, that requests, prayers, intercession and thanksgiving be made for everyone— for kings and all those in authority, that we may live peaceful and quiet lives in all godliness and holiness. This is good, and pleases God our Savior, who wants all men to be saved and to come to a knowledge of the truth." 1 Timothy 2: 1-4

The implications of Sharon’s stroke for Israeli politics are profound.  There’s a Hebrew term for coffee used over here called “a-foukk”, which means “upside down”.  That’s just what’s happened to Israeli politics – they’ve been turned “upside down”.  What seemed a predictable victory for Sharon and his political party Kadima in less than 100 days from the first of the year is now in doubt.  Political polling predicted Kadima would get as many as 42 seats in the next Knesset and it seemed a surety that Sharon would be Israel’s next prime minister.  His popularity has risen so high that politicians from both left and right flocked to Sharon’s party.  Much of it was fueled by political opportunism.  The opportunism ran so deep that one political commentator quipped Kadima was more of an employment agency and less of a political party.  

Polls within the next week will reflect the reaction of the Israeli body politic more accurately to Sharon’s condition, but it seems clear that Likud and Benjamin Netanyahu that were running a distant third in recent polling might still be a serious contender as Israel’s leading party and prime minister.  In recent polls, Likud ran a distant third and outpolled 3 to 1 by Kadima..  We’ll see in a few days how much support has been eroded from Kadima and shifted to Likud and other political parties.  The implications for Israel’s national policy are enormous.  It will affect everything from what to do with the West Bank, how to deal with the growing threat from Iran, and how to deal with its relationship with the U.S.    

Israel’s political crisis comes at a time in Israel’s history when it’s hard to overemphasize the threats it’s facing:  For example, it faces an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear program and the menacing rhetoric from its fiery president.  His calls for Israel to be “wiped off the map” while the Iranian state is striving to get a nuclear bomb is a lethal brew.  Hezbollah continues to pose a significant threat on Israel’s northern border and military experts say more sophisticated missiles have been smuggled into the recently evacuated Gaza Strip.  The Strip itself is descending into chaos and anarchy.  It’s the implosion of the Palestinian Authority and the accelerating political strength of Hamas that is alarming many Israeli observers.  Finally, Israel’s defense minister warned that al-Qaeda is setting its sites on Israel and has already claimed to have fired missiles into Israel from Lebanon. 

It certainly seems plenty of reason and incentive to “Pray for the peace of Jerusalem” with a renewed sense of fervor.

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