November 18, 2005

Israel's Political Earthquake

The shock waves began late last week and since then they’ve swelled into a massive political earthquake here in Israel. When Amir Peretz defeated Shimon Peres for the head of the Labor Party on November 9, it was unexpected and like the proverbial pebble in the pond, sent shock waves through Israel’s political landscape.

After Peres’s defeat and Peretz’s victory, a whole series of ramifications were set in motion that will take months to unfold with perhaps consequences for years to come. The first impact was early elections. Ariel Sharon’s term of office and that of his government was scheduled to last until November 2006. But Peretz pledged when he was running for head of the Labor Party that he would pull out of Sharon’s government. Following his victory, he fulfilled that pledge and went to Sharon with letters of resignation in hand from the Labor cabinet ministers.

Now the debate between Sharon and Peretz is when those elections will take place. The dates will likely fall sometime in February or March 2006, just a few months away. However, trying to determine what will happen in Israeli politics during that time period is like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall--not easy to do. Israeli politics are not like those in the U.S. American politics are like Vanilla and Chocolate; Republican and Democrat. Israel’s is like Baskin and Robbins 31 flavors. You want Rocky Road? That’s Israeli politics. Just consider the number of political parties in the current Knesset: you have Likud, Labor, Shinui, Shas, National Union, Meretz, National Religious Party, Torah and Shabbat Judaism, Am Ehad, Hadash, Balad, Yisrael B’Aliya, and United Arab List.

Only three parties make up the current coalition: Likud, Labor and Torah and Shabbat Judaism. They form a majority in the 120 seat Knesset but since Labor is leaving, the government falls and by law early elections will take place. How all the other parties will fare in upcoming elections remains to be seen and the make up of the next Knesset will go a long way to determine the next government and who will be the next prime minister of Israel.

One of the major questions unanswered now is whether or not Ariel Sharon will leave the Likud party and form his own party. He’s waiting on polling results to help make his decision, but the idea is politically enticing. He enjoys a great deal of popularity now and might be able to strike out on his own and set his own agenda, unencumbered by the so-called Likud “rebels” who opposed his Gaza pullout. According to some reports, Sharon feels he’s the one who can draw up the final borders of Israel. That likely means he’ll try to withdraw from substantial portions of Judea and Samaria (or the West Bank) to establish those borders. However, if he leaves the party, he also loses “name brand” of Likud, a well known and familiar party for decades in Israeli politics. Furthermore, he wouldn’t benefit from guaranteed government funding for Likud. The conviction of his son Omri this week on charges of campaign funding violations won’t help his fund raising efforts either if he starts a new party.

Other major questions remain: What will this do to the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu? Current polls show him trailing Sharon by significant margins. What about Uzi Landau, the principled leader of the Likud “rebels” who opposed for months Sharon’s plan to pull out of Gaza? Will the election of Peretz – who is considered a dove - resuscitate the “peace camp” within Israel?

And will Labor be able to stand behind their new leader? Not everyone has unified behind Peretz. Consider this line in last Monday’s Jerusalem Post: “Names that top Labor officials have called Peretz in recent days include dictator, Napoleon and hothead.” That’s his own party talking!

While it’s difficult to know what will happen, it is possible to pray for Godly leadership for one of the most important positions in the world, Israel’s prime minister. Only 10 men and one woman have held that office in Israel’s modern history. The next one, whoever it will be, will be in the position to make significant and strategic decisions for Israel. As Paul wrote to Timothy, praying for leaders is a vital calling: “First of all, I urge that entreaties and prayers, petitions and thanksgivings, be made on behalf of all men, for kings and all who are in authority, in order that we may lead a tranquil and quiet life in all godliness and dignity.” I Timothy 2:1,2.

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